If Hosni Mubarak Survive, distention Can Riots in Egypt

long time a number of countries in the Middle East is in the status quo. But in 2011, the major changes occur. Following a large demonstration called for total reform in Tusinia, the population of Egypt did the same. They want Hosni Mubarak who has ruled 30 years right down.

Facing massive protests, Mubarak appointed as vice-president Omar Suleiman. This was first done for 3 decades he's Mubarak in power. Mubarak also conduct a Cabinet reshuffle, but also waves of demonstrations not subside.

Apparently the Egyptian people want not just reform but revolution. They want Mubarak down and left Egypt. Until the eighth day of demonstrations, Mubarak still has not left the presidential chair. If you ignore the request of the people, feared riots would occur in Egypt.

"If he's willing to stand strong, can-can ya imposed by force, a very large mass riots could happen, so many victims will fall. Should Mubarak listened to the will of the people, unless he wants to finish off a case of Chinese people in Tiananmen Square. If so, this terrible disaster, "says Middle East analyst from the Indonesian Society for Middle East Studies (ISMES) Fahmi Salsabila.

As is known, on June 4, 1989 tens of thousands of students demanding democracy in Tiananmen Square. They were followed by repression, in which some Red Army troops with tanks grinding her heart. As a result thousands of students died covered in blood. Not only that, thousands of students were arrested and jailed. Some students have even declared missing.

Here I'm reading an interview with faculty at Al-Azhar University, Jakarta, Tuesday (01/02/2011):

What lies behind the most anti-government demonstrations this?

Momentum because of Tunisia and also because of disappointment and dissatisfaction of the people who for so long against the government. It also supported the largest opposition Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

So momentum is what happened in Tunisia, in addition to existing domestic high unemployment, high inflation, corruption, so people no longer want Hosni Mubarak.

They think, was enough Mubarak in power. Already 30 years. Formerly the people of Egypt Hosni Mubarak's repression of fear with the famous anti-freedom of expression. Currently deemed appropriate moment so that they are not afraid anymore. They dare to fight so that the death toll reached more than 100 people.

Due to this, the cultural heritage in Egypt could have been damaged. Political and economic changes occur automatically. It is feared, the Arab countries that have a pattern that is still like this, such as Yemen, Algeria, Jordan would do the same.

This time seems to have been waiting for?

If during the life of repression, of course they are waiting for the right to be free. This is a long-awaited.

In the case of Egypt, the United States again showed double standards. U.S. campaign for democracy because all this time touting himself as a courtier of democracy, the father of democracy, human rights campaign, but in Egypt what the opposite in fact.

U.S. even support Hosni Mubarak who ruled for 30 years. Other countries should uphold democracy, but instead supported a repressive. This shows how hypocritical the U.S. second to none. It shows also that during the United States wants the status quo in the Arab world.

Soldiers already sided with the action of the people. Mubarak's resignation a matter of time?

It is a matter of time. If military support Hosni even worse chaos. This situation is reminiscent of the fall of Soeharto era in Indonesia. The military could have staged a coup, but his position should be in the middle. Since the military can be a damper popular anger.

Why bid submitted by Mubarak's reform is not a positive response?

They want a total revolution, the Egyptian people even ask him to come down and away from Egypt. Son and his wife had gone, people also want to lift the foot Hosni. Previously, Hosni had prepared his son, Gamal Mubarak, to become his successor. The regeneration of this kind of like making a kingdom for the Mubarak dynasty in Egypt, and this is not desired by the people. They think the father and son is not much different, they want change.

What are the consequences if Mubarak still survive?

If he's willing to stand strong, can-can ya imposed by force, a very large mass riots could happen, so many victims will fall. Should Mubarak listened to the will of the people, unless he wanted to kill people like the Chinese in Tiananmen. If so, this is a very bad disaster.

I think right now Hosni was thinking very hard. What was he already too late. After 30 years of newly appointed vice president in power. He then remodel the minister as an effort to reform, but it was too late.

Omar Suleiman is elected as vice president, who is a former chief of intelligence, rated as America's man so he could not embrace the people. Hosni Mubarak should further embrace religious leaders, community leaders, opposition figures. I think it should Hosni Keprabon stepped down elegantly.

In your opinion, who is leader of the right transition for Egypt?

I think Suleiman could not because not enough people able to embrace. In my opinion the best right now is the recipient nobel peace and Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei.

ElBaradei is strong enough when dealing with the U.S.. He once said that Egypt wanted independence. He does not want America to set Egypt. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood can also accept ElBaradei. And for the U.S. alone, might be better received than the Muslim Brotherhood ElBaradei who ride. If the Muslim Brotherhood will rise further endanger U.S. interests in the Middle East and Israel do not worry.

If Mubarak retreat, what consequences for the Middle East?

Surely it would make political constellation changed completely. Egypt is the most important U.S. ally in the Middle East. Egypt was the first Arab country which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979 at Camp David, U.S.. At that time Egypt was still under President Anwar Sadat.

Israel and Egypt had previously engaged in war, for example in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973. With the peace agreement, at least Israel can be a little quiet. For Israel, Egypt holds an important position in maintaining dialogue with the Arab world, is associated with a group of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

In addition, Egypt's powerful because it has the support of the U.S.. If Mubarak down and replaced by someone who is not pro-US then Egypt will escape from U.S. influence. There is a big geopolitical changes there. This of course could change the balance of power in the Middle East. Muslim Brotherhood which is anti-Israel groups will surely experience revival. The status quo in the Middle East that the U.S. secretly enjoyed this course will be lost because the impact to other countries.

Looking ahead, it's better if there are changes. Surely it would be drastic changes in the economy because the U.S. will no longer disburse such great assistance to Egypt. The economic crisis probably will happen, but maybe the Muslim Brotherhood will help overcome this. U.S. may push Egypt to the embargo, as is done in Iran and Iraq because it was considered anti-American. Change in Egypt could endanger and weaken Israel.


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